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Pete Alonso’s New Contract: A Home Run or a Ground Out?

Posted in Forensic Accounting, on Feb 2025, By: Mark S. Gottlieb

The Super Bowl is an annual event that both avid sports fans and the indifferent have come to enjoy. There seems to be something for everyone. Pomp and circumstance over the year’s two best football teams battling for the Lombardi Trophy, the halftime show, and the commercials. But for many like me, the crowning of football’s best means just one thing: pitchers and catchers are about to report for spring training.

Experts are supposed to be unbiased and transparent. So, before you continue reading, let me come clean. I’m a big baseball fan who bleeds the Mets blue and orange. I am not a season ticket holder, but I watch nearly every game. My favorite summer moments are taking the 7 Train from Midtown to Flushing, buying a single ticket the day of the game, and sitting in the stands as close to the field as possible, with my tie loosely around my collar and suit jacket on my lap.

Not since acquiring Mike Piazza has there been so much pre-season buzz about the Mets. Signing Juan Soto to a multi-year contract for a king’s ransom has certainly set great expectations. But the past few months after the Soto signing has been all about the Pete Alonso contract negotiations. Who didn’t want the Polar Bear back in a Mets uniform? He is just a stone’s throw away from passing Daryl Strawberry for the most home runs by a Met. And who can forget the winning homerun dumped over the right-field fence to get the Mets to the 2024 Division Championship?

For several months, fans have been focused on the Alonso contract negotiations. He didn’t need fans advocating for him as he recently hired Super Agent Scott Boras after rejecting a 7-year, $157 million contract. However, the current contract negotiations have not gone smoothly. Despite the Mets’ resources and obvious interest in resigning their homegrown hero, the market was not as warm and fuzzy as Pete had hoped.

As it turned out, Pete Alonso and the Mets finally agreed to a short-term 2-year deal for $54 million, including a $10 million signing bonus – with the ability to opt-out. But the question remains: why did it take so long to sign Alonso? What happened to the long-term deal he hoped for, and did Pete sign a friendly or poor contract?

It got me thinking: why not perform some due diligence, compare the current contracts of the best home run hitters in the game, and compare their contracts to the one that Alonso signed?

So here we go:

To begin, I went to the MLB website and retrieved the top home run hitters over the past five years. However, before performing any significant analysis, I decided to exclude the 2020 season due to the shortened campaign caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To no surprise, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani topped this list with average annual home runs of 54 and 45, respectively, from 2021 to 2024. During this period, Alonzo ranked 5th among the home run kings, averaging 39 home runs per season. However, Pete’s (average) batting average of .261 only ranked 8th amongst the top ten home run performers.

We all know that Alonso hit 53 home runs in 2019, the most of any rookie in the history of the game, but apparently, he has been unable to keep up this pace. In the past four seasons, Pete has averaged 39 home runs per season, ranging from 34 in 2024 to 46 in 2023. To Pete’s credit, these amounts have been consistent with the remaining home run leaders during the same period.

The following table illustrates these totals and compares them to the other heavy hitters.

Clearly, it was unfortunate for Pete that his home run production and batting average suffered in his contract year. Despite his propensity to strike out and hit ground balls, he is still one of the top home run performers in the game.

So now let’s get to the brass tax – how did Pete’s new contract rate compare to his peers?

Not surprisingly, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge are the top-paid home run hitters in the game. Their average annual salary of $46 million is more than double the yearly average salary of $20 million for the remaining home run leaders, excluding Alonso’s new contract.

Pete’s new contract, which pays him $27 million annually, ranks fourth and well below the top three contracts. However, it is significantly higher than the average annual salary of the remaining home-run leaders. Considering all of the top home run producers, Pete’s new contract approximates the average annual salary of $28 million of all home run titans.

So, what is the lesson to be learned from this analysis?

First, whether you are the top home run hitter or the tenth, you can afford the current price of a dozen eggs. Second, playing ball in New York or California certainly provides opportunities to make a ton of money. Third, all be it a short-term contract, Pete Alonso is being paid a lot of money to play a boy’s game, and I don’t feel bad for him because if he bounces back to his former form, he should be able to earn an even bigger contract shortly.

Pete, if you are reading my blog, please look for me. I will be one of many rooting for you. Let’s Go Mets—it’s time to win the World Series.

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